Does anybody know when the last time Labor had 5 seats or less in QLD? Dont assume 2019 was a high watermark for the LNP. Hayden held the seat until 1988, serving as Health Minister 1972-75, Treasurer 1975, Opposition Leader 1977-83 and Foreign Minister 1983-88. With the ballot papers already printed with the Liberal Partys name attached to Hanson, she gained a high profile and managed to win the seat with a large swing. Save my name, email, and website in this browser for the next time I comment. Alex Chapman / Federal Election / Updated 20.05.2022 Millions of Australians are heading to the ballot box on Saturday to decide which government will hold power for the next three years. Oh no please dont be fooled by the margin, Remember this did flip in 1996 even with Pauline Hanson being dis-endorsed, I am predicting a 1975-1996 style wipe-out for Labor in QLD, the LNP is likely to match Newman 2012 levels at the federal election. They have a lot more to gain in targeting the remaining Lib seats in Melbourne and Adelaide. [1] Why do we have problems with the Murray-Darling system running dry, and dryland salinity? The teals and Greens seats arent likely going to be won by Labor now they have got them. The current division is the second to bear the name, and was created in 1949. https://amp.theguardian.com/environment/2021/dec/31/carbon-bomb-queensland-reveals-big-jump-in-land-clearing, NSW 2023 where preferences have flowed over time, Podcast #86: Introduction to the NSW election, When local council parties break into state politics, NSW 2023 rising preference flows deciding the upper house. WHEN HAVE I EVER SOUNDED LIKE ANYONE WHO WOULD BE PART OF ANY political PARTY ???. Ipswich is rapidly transforming from an industrial hub of SE QLD (the powerbox of Brisbane), into a dormitory suburb of aspirational young families who work cant quite afford to live in Brisbane or the Gold Coast. There will be a swing to Labor here so this seat will not be in contention. And 1977 was affected by the 1975 circumstances. 2019 result Walt Secord MLC - announced 19 August 2022; Adam Searle MLC - lost preselection 15 September 2022; Shaoquett Moselmane MLC - did not nominate for endorsement; Guy Zangari MP - announced 17 October 2022; Paul Lynch MP - not preselected November 2022 Hanson contested the new seat of Blair, which now covered Ipswich, which had previously been included in Oxley. Booths have been divided into five areas. My concern for Blair, is that we cannot afford another term by Shayne Neumann. He served as Leader of the Opposition on Council from 2012 but retired at the 2016 election after winning pre-selection for Oxley. Hi SEQ observer. Home; News. ), Labor recorded two-party preferred majorities in 27 of the 34 polling places used in 2019, the Liberals polling well in the Centenary suburbs in the north of the electorate, but Labor dominant further south. In 1961 the Labor Party defeated the Menzies government's Health Minister Donald Cameron, much to the surprise of Labor's candidate, little known Queensland Police Constable Bill Hayden. Shortly before the election she was quoted in local papers criticising government assistance for indigenous Australians, which resulted in her disendorsement as a Liberal candidate. I stand by it. Geography The FEA period for the regularly scheduled elections start on 05/31/2022. I NEVER GO OF HALF-COCKED, IF I GO OFF, IT IS ALL THE WAY! The Valkyrie did chuckle as she agreed Well yes! Even if its somehow a close election 20+ seats could change hands between the 2 parties. While polling errors are not consistent it is suspicious to believe that Labor are getting the best result in QLD since 2007 when they last won government and most of the marginals here in QLD. Geography Blair covers most of the City of Ipswich as well as Somerset Regional Council. Seat-by-seat guide to the 2022 federal election FEDERAL ELECTION 2022. State govt only survived on the covid vote. Gideon has designed and led programs including Information . @Political Nightwatchman The results of the election show that Labor can afford to give up in Queensland. . Parliament House Its almost as if 2019 was so devastatingly surprising that it has provoked an opposite reaction. Madura McCormack @maduramccormack less than 2 min read April 20, 2022 - 12:00AM QLD Politics Notes: Two candidate preferred or TCP is a count of the two leading candidates only - votes are recorded for a particular candidate if the preference on the ballot paper for that candidate is . Each candidate will give a. The date change was necessitated by court order. Then why are landholders in Queensland clearing the equivalent of 1000 MCGs of tree cover each day? A Trybooking page for the campaign launch initially said: "Join with our warrior Senator Amanda Stoker & Senator Paul Scarr to launch the campaign for Chris Green the LNP Candidate for Oxley. Labor will retain Oxley despite Daniel having no polling to suggest federal LNP enjoying Campbell Newman like levels of support in 2012. Following the 2020 Census, some states may redraw their districts. Senator Scarr is acting as an Ipswich corridor MP. What are your views on NSW despite not living here? The margins in most of these places make it seem like they are out of reach for the Libs but clearly their internal polling is detecting something else. It was 8 points wrong, So if we apply the same 8 point error to the current polls you get 61-39. Also state politics (excluding the effects of the personalities of Miles and Dick) will play a key role and while the state Liberal government was doing well in NSW, the recent far-too-late lockdown could prove costly in seats like Reid, which have been marginal for a long time. Neumann has been re-elected four times since his first win in 2010. ", Mr Green's name has since been removed, with the page now stating: "Hear from Sen. Amanda & Sen. Scarr about how you can become involved in the federal campaign. Blair is an old style ALP seat with some rural areas. Member of the Speaker's Panel from 4.8.2021 to 11.4.2022. Hayden was elected Leader of the Opposition after Gough Whitlams resignation after the 1977 election, and led the party to an improved position in 1980. With a rare QLD leader of the ALP, I wasnt thinking 2013 was a high water mark for LNP in QLD, but it was in NSW. They would have to do very poorly in Queensland to be in trouble here. Labor doesnt have a huge majority but there are some Queensland seats up for grabs in 2025. Save my name, email, and website in this browser for the next time I comment. Maybe there should be a thread just for general election soothsaying. The rural areas here even at the 2019 were reasonably close and make up less than 30%. Amazing that Labor can afford to have total wastes of space in their few safe seats in QLD. Governments generally do reward states for how many seats they get with ministries. Certainly not Lilley. I propose that the neighbouring Moreton would sooner fall to LNP. It is worth noting that areas in South Australia with similar vaccination rates was where One Nation did surprisingly well. The FEC will update its map to reflect the new congressional districts and boundaries once information has been made available from each state. Worsteling is a retail worker and research assistant currently studying psychology at the University of Queensland. 1. Blair took over territory in Ipswich in 1998 from the seat of Oxley. Business; Politics; Military; Elections; Law; Immigration; Technology. Mr Green's campaign Facebook page and website have been taken down. Page. Let alone a HACK How dare you ? 2. I never said the LNP would win as I do think Labor are favourites. Candidates. The ABC has a great write up on how all that works, and if it even . Voters rewarded the incumbent Fraser government in 1975, Indeed 1996 was the first time since 1949 an incumbent Labor government lost. There were rumors reported that former LNP QLD state leader and Mp for Nanango Deb Frecklington had interest in standing in Blair in May. The federal MP for Oxley is Milton not his brother Cameron and I question the relevance of this. Aston and Menzies are probably at high marks for Labor though. 91.47% counted . Even my (still overpoweringly vital ) 85 year old mother the Valkyrie accused me of going off half-cocked the other night.! Watch the latest news on Channel 7 or stream for free on 7plus >>. District maps on this page are approximate. We acknowledge the traditional owners and custodians of country throughout Australia and acknowledge their continuing connection to land, waters and community. Neumann is complacent and believes if he is seen in the community, then that is all he is required to do. LDP, UAP and PHON have candidates already. Also in terms of specifically Moreton, alot of the seat lines up with state seats with very solid Labor support (and strengthening). Theres supposed to be multiple electorate constituencies. Support James. Create secure local jobs by investing in Fee-Free TAFE and more university places, and make your job more secure with better pay and conditions. Customer Service Representative, Daycare Teacher, Community Service Officer and more on Indeed.com Federal Election Commission | United States of America, Learn how to enable Javascript in your browser. The seat has moved away from Labor in recent years (Like the overlapping state seats) and Fraser was actually the incumbent prime minister in 1975. I also dont understand why Neumann was demoted to the backbench, Does Albanese dislike Queensland or the MP himself? Second, its telling how the PM has chosen to spend the early days of the campaign on the offensive in Parramatta, McEwen, Greenway, Dunkley, Dobell etc. Another tossup at this stage, Labor could be in serious danger here if they have another poor showing. 2022 United Australia Party. united states securities and exchange commission washington, d.c. 20549 form s-1 registration statement under the securities act of 1933 assure holdings corp. It is likelihood that One Nation and UAPs adoption of the negative sentiment surrounding Covid measures throughout the pandemic will strongly play out in SE QLD in the election. The WA and QLD L/NP parties are also not cutting through (as opposed to 2019) and the only seats which are definitely safe are seats like Cook, Kennedy and Clark, where the local member is so entrenched they wont lose until they retire, resign or die. No contest. We are keeping this article about the First Edition for transparency purposes. I did the calculations for Blair. Select the 'Find online' button. Do i fucking sound like a HACK ? Campaign Director of the Australian Labor Party State Branch (Qld.) Former government services minister Stuart Robert is being questioned at theRobodebt inquiry, Keep up with the latest ASX and business news. Senator for Queensland. Organiser of the Australian Labor Party State Branch (Qld.) Choose your state: All ACT NSW NT QLD SA TAS VIC WA. Leave Winediamond out of it we have the same local polling booth and he thinks Zimmerman is a waste of space so thats good enough for me. 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